A decade following the UK embarked on a rushed referendum that divided the country and triggered chaos, a caution comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and electorate drifted into Brexit and the similar may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating upheavals for which no one is ready.
That represents the warning from two prominent journalists from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a potentially contentious and monumental referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction swiftly," O’Toole remarked. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have analysed the political, economic and societal arguments for any structural alteration in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the matter with a series of lectures that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everybody, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose implications have remained undefined because then you end up with an extremely split population where the losing side are not reconciled to defeat and the those successful are uncertain exactly what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue this point is looming, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the possibility, leaving it unclear when or if there will be a national vote.
Absence of Serious Debate
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has masked the absence of serious debate, stated the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the notion but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to make it possible is mostly absent. A lot has gone on in academia but hardly any government figures or campaigners seek to involve themselves even with the essentials. As an example, what sort of state would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, none of the commentators advocates unity or the status quo. They writes two articles that strive for neutrality in detailing the argument for a united Ireland and the case against, marshalling financial and social data, previous instances and constitutional models.
Discussions cover flags and symbols, taxes, medical care, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to educate and stimulate dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there has not yet occurred a discussion," said the writer. "Debate implies an recognition of the notion that there may exist reasonable perspectives on either side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters claim they prefer unity but reject greater financial contributions or introducing a new flag to reflect pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to work out what the offer from nationalist groups is beyond just stating: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we love you'," said the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride believes a national vote in his generation is likely and that it could happen abruptly. "It is possible just a mad or a poor or a feckless government minister who says: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, valid perspectives, he said. "One side will succeed on this issue and somebody will in the end not succeed but each side has possesses important lessons to gain from the opposing positions."
Request for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster needed to join the discussion, said O’Toole. "This is about your state. It is a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish issue."
